As we head into 2026, many buyers and sellers are asking the same question:
“What is really happening in the Bay Area housing market?”
Instead of broad headlines or national forecasts, this overview focuses on local MLS data across six Bay Area counties. Real estate is hyper-local, and understanding how each county behaves helps set better expectations—and better outcomes.
Below, I break down each county using three simple lenses:
What’s happening → What this can mean for sellers → How this may influence buying decisions
Alameda County
What’s happening
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The average sold price is around $1.40M, up ~10% year over year, and largely flat year-to-date.
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Active inventory is significantly higher than last year (nearly triple), giving buyers more choice.
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Sale-to-list price ratios remain strong at roughly 104–105%, though no longer automatic.
(Source: Alameda County MLS Market Trends, Dec 9, 2025)
How this can impact sellers
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Pricing accuracy matters more than ever—buyers are comparing closely.
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Homes that are well-prepared and well-priced still sell near or above asking.
How this may influence buyers
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More inventory creates room for negotiation and thoughtful decision-making.
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Strong homes still move quickly; patience is rewarded when homes are mispriced.
Contra Costa County
What’s happening
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The average sold price is approximately $1.23M, up about 10% year over year.
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Inventory has increased sharply, creating more competition among sellers.
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Sale-to-list ratios have moderated to about 99–101%.
(Source: Contra Costa County MLS Market Trends, Dec 9, 2025)
How this can impact sellers
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The market is less forgiving of overpricing than in prior years.
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Turnkey homes stand out more clearly than average-condition listings.
How this may influence buyers
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Buyers have more time to evaluate options and compare neighborhoods.
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Opportunities may emerge where listings linger due to pricing or condition.
San Francisco County
What’s happening
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The average sold price is about $2.31M, up roughly 33% year over year.
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Inventory remains relatively low compared to surrounding counties.
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Homes are selling well above list price on average, with sale-to-list ratios exceeding 110%.
(Source: San Francisco County MLS Market Trends, Dec 9, 2025)
How this can impact sellers
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Well-located, well-presented homes continue to attract strong demand.
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Strategic pricing can still create competitive situations.
How this may influence buyers
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Buyers should be prepared for competition on desirable properties.
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Micro-neighborhood trends matter more than citywide averages.
San Joaquin County
What’s happening
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The average sold price is around $559K, down about 3% year over year.
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Inventory has risen notably, and homes are taking longer to sell.
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Sale-to-list ratios have softened to approximately 95–97%.
(Source: San Joaquin County MLS Market Trends, Dec 9, 2025)
How this can impact sellers
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Pricing realistically from the start is key to avoiding extended market time.
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Buyers are value-focused and less likely to stretch.
How this may influence buyers
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Buyers may find more negotiating power here than in core Bay Area counties.
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This market rewards patience and disciplined analysis.
San Mateo County
What’s happening
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The average sold price has climbed to approximately $3.25M, up about 45% year over year.
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Inventory remains tight relative to demand.
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Sale-to-list price ratios remain consistently strong at 103–105%+.
(Source: San Mateo County MLS Market Trends, Dec 9, 2025)
How this can impact sellers
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Demand remains strong, especially near job centers and transit corridors.
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Sellers benefit from precise pricing and strong presentation.
How this may influence buyers
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Buyers need to be decisive when the right home appears.
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Preparation and local insight matter more than broad market timing.
Santa Clara County
What’s happening
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The average sold price is approximately $2.49M, up about 10% year over year.
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Inventory has increased from last year but remains balanced relative to demand.
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Sale-to-list ratios hover around 102–105%.
(Source: Santa Clara County MLS Market Trends, Dec 9, 2025)
How this can impact sellers
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The market continues to reward strong fundamentals: location, condition, and pricing.
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Overpricing leads to slower absorption than in peak years.
How this may influence buyers
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Buyers can be selective but should move quickly on well-priced homes.
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Data-driven offer strategies outperform emotional bidding.
Big Picture: Bay Area Market Context for 2026
Across the Bay Area, the pattern is consistent:
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Inventory is higher than last year
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Pricing trends vary by county, ranging from modest declines to strong year-over-year growth
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Pricing strategy and property condition matter more than ever
Think of the 2026 market less as “hot or cold” and more as precise.
The best outcomes come from understanding:
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The micro-market, not just the county
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What similar homes actually closed for, not what they were listed at
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How design, layout, and livability influence buyer perception
How I Help Clients Navigate This Market
With a background in architecture and community planning, along with certifications as a Global Luxury Specialist (GUILD) and Pricing Strategy Advisor (PSA), I help clients:
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Price homes using real data, not guesswork
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Evaluate properties beyond surface features—layout, functionality, and long-term value
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Align strategy with neighborhood-level trends, not headlines
Whether you’re buying, selling, or planning ahead, my role is to simplify complexity, reduce stress, and help you make confident, well-informed decisions.
